In a surprise, U.S. colleges saw higher enrollment last fall

College enrollment in the U.S. rose for the first time last fall to surpass pre-pandemic levels, new figures out today show.

Across undergraduate and graduate programs, total enrollment rose 4.5 percent, or 817,000 students, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.

The numbers provided welcome news to colleges worried about the Biden administration’s botched revamp of the federal student aid application known as FAFSA, and reports showing many Americans questioning the value of a college degree.

Among the incoming freshman class in the fall of 2024, enrollment increased 5.5 percent, or 130,000 students, the data shows.

The growth among freshmen “is driven by older first-year students, as 18-year-olds are still below their 2019 numbers,” Doug Shapiro, the center’s executive director, said in a statement.

The research center also corrected an error in data released last fall that mistakenly showed freshman enrollment had declined, Shapiro said.

The latest figures are a relief to higher education experts worried about a looming “demographic cliff” expected to bring enrollment declines in coming years. That could mean trouble for colleges in terms of lost revenue, and trouble for the economy by creating shortages of educated graduates.

“The fact that students are both seeing the value in college and enrolling, I think, is really great news,” said Tolani Birtton, an associate professor at the University of California, Berkeley, who studies higher education.

In the past few years of enrollment drops, many in higher education were asking the question, “Will it ever recover?” Britton said. “And what we’ve seen is the answer to that in some ways is yes.”

A particular bright spot in the new figures was at community colleges, which saw the biggest enrollment declines during the pandemic. Freshman enrollment at community colleges rose 7.1 percent last fall, while their overall enrollment rose 5.9 percent, or 325,000 students.

The positive trend across higher education is important because the U.S. economy is expected to create many more jobs “needing some type of credential to be able to do those jobs adequately,” said Nicole Smith, a research professor and chief economist at the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce.

It’s not just the lack of workers with credentials, Smith added. She worries about upcoming labor shortages due to retirements, especially in trade jobs. More students seeking degrees or certifications could help fill gaps across the labor market.

“We are hoping that by increasing enrollment that a number of people will be better prepared to take those jobs in the future.”