The Gaza war has shaken up the Mideast. Now Syria’s war has reignited

In a matter of days, Syrian rebels captured the major city of Aleppo, seized additional territory in the surrounding countryside, and refocused international attention on what was the mostly dormant Syrian civil war.

Now the question is whether the rebels can keep the pressure on Syrian President Bashar Assad, or whether his army can hold the line and mount a counterattack.

A chain of upheavals in the region

From afar, the rapid advance by the rebels, known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, seemed to come out of nowhere.

Yet events in Syria are linked to a series of upheavals in the Middle East over the past year, beginning with the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. Collectively, they have destabilized the region and helped create the opening for HTS fighters to launch their offensive last week.

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Syria’s government army is now trying to regroup with help from Syria’s traditional allies, which include Russia, Iran and the Lebanese group Hezbollah.

Russian and Syrian planes are carrying out airstrikes in and around Aleppo. Iran is trying to rally diplomatic support, including a Tuesday meeting between the foreign ministers of Iran and Turkey. While Iran has long backed Assad, Turkey has supported various rebel factions fighting Assad in the multi-sided civil war that erupted in 2011.

After several years of limited fighting in Syria, it appeared the worst of the war was over even if the country remained deeply divided among multiple groups. The Syrian government holds the capital Damascus along with most of the south and west, while various opposition factions control much of the north and the east.

Against this backdrop, the attack by the Palestinian group Hamas on southern Israel on Oct. 7 of last year set in motion multiple conflicts that are still playing out. The day after that Hamas incursion, Oct. 8, 2023, Hezbollah joined the fray, firing rockets into northern Israel as a show of support for Hamas.

The fighting kept spreading, with Houthi rebels in Yemen firing on commercial ships transiting the Red Sea, and occasionally launching long-distance drones and missiles at Israel. Earlier this year, Israel and Iran exchanged long-range missile and drone fire.

Syria’s leader lays low

Amid all this turmoil, Syria’s Assad kept a low profile. The Syrian leader is accused of widespread abuses and atrocities during the country’s civil war. But over the past year, he’s said very little, refrained from new military offensives against opposition forces, and generally sought to avoid direct involvement in the wider regional conflicts.

But in recent days, war has returned with a vengeance to Syria, the country Assad and his late father, Hafez Assad, have ruled for more than a half-century.

Paul Salem, who’s based in Beirut with the Middle East Institute, noted that Syria’s three main supporters — Iran, Russia and Hezbollah — have all been weakened and distracted by other conflicts.

Iran and Hezbollah have been locked in confrontation with Israel, while Russia has been bogged down with its war in Ukraine.

“Israel has dealt a staggering blow to Hezbollah in Lebanon,” said Salem. “Hezbollah was one of the main fighting forces that saved the Assad regime from collapse in 2015. They are no longer really available to do that.”

Iran, meanwhile, has suffered a series of setbacks as its proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, have fared poorly in their wars with Israel. Iran has also been weakened by Israeli strikes that targeted the country’s limited air defenses, leaving it vulnerable to any future Israeli strikes.

With Syria’s allies in disarray, the rebels decided to pounce last week and scored a shockingly swift victory in Aleppo. Syrian government forces battled the rebels for months in 2016 to reclaim the devastated city. Last week, the Syrian army quickly retreated and left the city.

“The Assad regime forces really melted away and there were not a lot of supportive forces to hold that line,” said Salem.

Gauging the strength of the rebels

HTS has not been advancing this week as it was last week, and analysts say the rebel fighters may find themselves stretched too thin if the Syrian military regroup and counterattack. Syria’s allies are trying to assist.

“The Russian air force is already pounding rebel-held areas. Iran is already moving allied militia forces. I wouldn’t be surprised to read reports that Hezbollah is moving fighters from Lebanon to Syria as well,” said Salem. But it’s not clear, he says, how much support these allies can provide.

In addition, several other opposition factions are also active in Syria, further complicating any efforts to resolve the conflict.

Also, the U.S. military still has around 900 troops in Syria, mostly in the remote northeast to help protect the Kurdish population. The U.S. troops aren’t directly involved in the current fighting, though they periodically come under attack by militias back by Iran.

The Biden administration has not taken sides in the latest fighting. The U.S. classifies HTS as a terrorist group and is also highly critical of Assad.