What should win vs. what will win — here are our Oscars predictions

Pop Culture Happy Hour critics recently chewed over who should, and who will win an Oscar this year. Our predictions — and hopes — for best picture are below.

The case for Anora

Anora should win, and it will:

Aisha Harris: The thing that’s always good to keep in mind when predicting the Oscars — besides the obvious fact that the awards very rarely have anything to do with actual merit — is this: Ranked choice voting.

There’s no way of knowing whether or not certain wins occur because a majority of members actually loved a movie enough to put it at the top of their rankings, or because enough voters made it their second or third choice to tip the scales. That being said, the odious press around Emilia Pérez star Karla Sofia Gascón (not to mention the polarizing reactions to the movie itself) seems to have moved Anora to the front of the pack. It’s been in the awards season conversation since winning the Palme D’Or at Cannes last May and hasn’t really lost any momentum since. The Producers Guild of America Awards also honored Anora with its top prize, and seven of the last 10 recipients have gone on to win the best picture Oscar.

If Anora does win, this would be the correct choice: As I wrote last year, the film surprises and enthralls by subverting expectations and confidently balancing opposing tonal shifts. Mikey Madison’s explosive lead performance is the anchor, but the entire ensemble is locked in and plays off the dramatic and farcical elements beautifully. Anora feels of the moment in a way that stands out from the rest of the nominee pack; In its normalized depiction of sex work and matter-of-fact critique of capitalism, it’s neither subtle nor preachy. It’s just (devastatingly) resonant.

Anora should win, but won’t:

Stephen Thompson: When we’re talking “should win,” let’s go with Anora, which feels like three dynamite TV episodes — 1) smutty upending of Pretty Woman; 2) panic-inducing thrill ride; and 3) untangling a web of consequences — strung end to end.

What will win is a different story. Though the Oscars have ignored backlash before — ahem, Green Book — it’s hard to imagine them going all-in on Emilia Pérez after the sheer volume of bad press it’s received. More and more, this field feels like a two-horse race between an “Oscar traditionalist” lane occupied by The Brutalist (epic, ambitious, about a Great Man who battles for art against the forces of commerce) and a snazzier lane occupied by Anora (fun, surprising, made by a director who’s accumulated loads of goodwill). When breaking ties in the Oscars race, it’s wise to bet on films that speak to the interests of the movie-making community, and this year that means The Brutalist (and The Substance, but all of that film’s Oscars heat seems to have been channeled into Demi Moore’s campaign for best actress).

The case for The Nickel Boys

Nickel Boys should win, but Anora will take home the prize:

Glen Weldon: The Academy should, but won’t, recognize that director RaMell Ross’ choice to film the movie using a first-person point-of-view was a bold risk that paid off. What could have been a distracting gimmick was used to deftly serve the emotional beats of the story.

The buzz about Anora has been growing over the course of Oscar season, while the buzz around The Brutalist hit a peak about a month-and-a-half ago. I’m not 100% on this prediction — The Brutalist is safe, traditional awards fodder: It’s a serious, sweeping historical (well, pseudo-historical) story. But a lot of folks feel generally well-disposed toward Anora, so it’ll do well in ranked-choice voting.

Nickel Boys should win, but The Brutalist will beat it:

Linda Holmes: Of all the best picture nominees, Nickel Boys is the one that has stuck with me as a film most persistently. What RaMell Ross did with the camera here, using a first-person approach that pushes the audience to perceive the story from the perspective of the two boys at the center, was one of my favorite creative choices of the year. Most of the rest of the best picture nominees are movies I liked but didn’t love. Nickel Boys is the one I have come back to over and over again, thinking about its methods and its filmmaking, and about the lives and fates of its characters.

Historical dramas have a strong history at the Oscars. Brady Corbet has gotten a huge amount of praise for the sheer sweep of The Brutalist, and the fact that it was made on a smaller budget than many expected — a reported $10 million — has only added to the fascination. Throw in a powerful central performance from Adrien Brody, and this is the kind of movie the Oscars love. Could be Anora, but I think in the end, the story Hollywood wants to tell about itself this year is that it embraced The Brutalist, and that’s usually the best way to figure out what’s going to win.