A judge orders a temporary thaw to Trump’s foreign aid freeze. What will that mean?

On Thursday, a federal judge in Washington, D.C., ordered the Trump Administration to temporarily lift the freeze on all funding of USAID programs around the world — the United States Agency for International Development.

The lawsuit was brought by two health care organizations that get funding from USAID: Aids Vaccine Advocacy Coalition and Global Health Council.

Judge Amir Ali wrote in his order that Trump Administration officials “have not offered any explanation for why a blanket suspension of all congressionally appropriated foreign aid, which set off a shockwave and upended” contracts with thousands of nonprofit groups, businesses and others “was a rational precursor to reviewing programs.”

The order sets a Feb. 18 deadline for the administration to inform the court of “the status of their compliance.”

The State Department’s press office did not respond to a request for comment by press time.

For many in the international aid sector, the order is a crucial first step in the fight to retain global health and development support from the U.S. government. But how the funding will start flowing again is unclear.

“ This is a very important legal victory, but what it means for programs on the ground is confusing and problematic,” says Nina Schwalbe, who heads the global health think tank Spark Street Advisors.

In theory, the order to resume USAID funding is exactly what it sounds like, Schwalbe says. If implemented, anyone who received money from the agency before the suspension could presumably access those funds and continue their work for the duration of the Trump Administration’s 90-day review of USAID funding for foreign aid programs – which was announced on January 20 and will be in force until mid-April.

But this order is only temporary pending the findings of the program review. And unfreezing that money is not as easy as it sounds. In the wake of the Trump administration’s stop-work order, thousands of staff and contractors have been fired or let go from USAID and locked out of its computer systems. “So it’s hard to understand who’s going to actually turn the financing tap back on,” Schawlbe says.

Even if USAID funds were to flow again over the next few weeks, it will be difficult to restart projects that were shut down, says Asia Russell, executive director of Health GAP, an international organization that ensures access to life-saving treatment for people with HIV.

That includes HIV/AIDS programs supported by the U.S. program PEPFAR, like community drop-in health centers. Despite a waiver issued by the State Department on Feb. 1 allowing some treatments and testing to continue, many staff around the world “were required to fire staff, close operations, sell their equipment and step away from their life-saving work,” Russell says.

On a logistical level, it will take time for these projects to reopen, Schwalbe says. For starters, workers will need to be rehired.

It will also take an incredible amount of trust, says Diana Kearney, Oxfam America’s senior legal and shareholder advocacy adviser. It will be hard for grantees, partners and other aid groups to rely on the Trump administration to “actually give this aid out” in response to the judge’s ruling when “we have seen cases where they’ve just ignored temporary restraining orders.”