5 signs that a U.S.-Europe split is widening

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine three years ago, there was plenty of talk about the revitalization of the NATO alliance in response to Kremlin aggression.

The alliance had grown languid in the decades since the Cold War. Its reputation suffered further under President Trump, who, during his first term, was openly dismissive of NATO, praised Russian President Vladimir Putin and threatened to withdraw U.S. protection under NATO’s mutual defense clause unless European allies increased their defense spending.

However, after Russia’s assault on Ukraine, U.S. military aid began to flow to Kyiv under the Biden administration, and many of these concerns seemed to fade. Sweden and Finland, who had long stayed out of NATO, reversed course and became members in the last two years. Last year, then-Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared NATO “stronger, larger than it’s ever been.”

But since Trump’s election in November, the situation has taken a sharp turn. The Trump administration has resumed criticizing NATO and offering praise for Putin, while positioning the U.S. at the center of peace talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine — negotiations that many fear will either collapse or ultimately harm Kyiv’s position.

“When Biden won in 2020, I felt a huge sigh of relief in London and across European capitals,” says Michael Cox, a professor emeritus of international relations at the London School of Economics. But with Trump’s reelection, “Europeans are far more worried this time around than they were previously.”

Here are five developments in the last few weeks that highlight the growing distrust between the U.S. and Europe:

Vice President Vance scolds EU leaders

Trump’s return to office has left European leaders on edge about the future of NATO and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

The transatlantic rift was on display in a Feb. 14 speech by Vice President Vance at the Munich Security Conference, where he harshly criticized European leaders, accusing them of attempting to stifle right-wing political views.

“To many of us on the other side of the Atlantic, it looks more and more like old, entrenched interests hiding behind ugly Soviet-era words like ‘misinformation’ and ‘disinformation,’ who simply don’t like the idea that somebody with an alternative viewpoint might express a different opinion, or — God forbid — vote a different way. Or even worse, win an election,” Vance said.

In a highly controversial move, Vance also met with Alice Weidel, co-leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), a party notorious for its Nazi-era rhetoric and downplaying Germany’s responsibility for the Holocaust.

Other political parties in Germany have refused to work with the AfD. But after elections held on Sunday, the AfD has now become the second-largest party, a significant political shift.

In response to Vance’s speech, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius shot back.

“This democracy was called into question by the U.S. vice president earlier, not just in Germany but in Europe as a whole. If I understood him correctly, he compares conditions in parts of Europe to those under authoritarian regimes,” he said. “That is not acceptable.”

Zelenskyy calls for “an armed forces of Europe”

In response to Vance’s speech, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for the creation of an “armed forces of Europe,” saying that without Ukraine’s army, European forces alone would not be sufficient to counter Russian aggression.

The urgency has grown for European leaders as concerns rise that Trump might bypass both Ukraine and Europe to strike a peace deal with Putin.

A recent report by the European think tank Bruegel says that Europe would need around 300,000 additional troops, costing some $262 billion, to fully replace the U.S. in defense matters. The think tank concluded that “the numbers are small enough for Europe to replace the U.S. fully.”

U.S. holds separate talks with Russia over Ukraine

Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently held talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Saudi Arabia without Ukrainian representatives present. The discussions appeared to set the stage for peace negotiations, raising alarms in Europe that the U.S. might push for a deal that sidelines Ukraine.

Much of Ukraine’s defense against Russia has depended on U.S. support. The U.S. has appropriated just under $175 billion since 2022 in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Trump himself has made clear his stance on Ukraine, stating in a Fox News Radio interview that he didn’t believe Zelenskyy was important to the peace process, dismissing the Ukrainian leader as holding “no cards,” adding, “you get sick of it.”

Many European leaders worry that Trump’s desire to end the war quickly might lead to Ukraine accepting a temporary ceasefire that could allow Russia to rebuild its forces.

Following a European Union meeting of foreign ministers in Paris earlier this month, seven European countries said in a statement that “Ukraine and Europe must be part of any negotiations.”

German leader questions U.S. commitment to Europe’s defense

Friedrich Merz, who is poised to become Germany’s new chancellor after elections on Sunday, has expressed serious doubts about the U.S. commitment to NATO. He fears that Trump may abandon NATO’s mutual defense pledge, leaving Europe vulnerable.

“We must prepare for the possibility that Donald Trump will no longer uphold NATO’s mutual defense commitment unconditionally,” Merz told a German broadcaster on Friday. “That is why, in my view, it is crucial that Europeans make the greatest possible efforts to ensure that we are at least capable of defending the European continent on our own.”

Since NATO’s inception in 1949, the U.S. has been the de facto guarantor of European security against threats from first the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, and now Russia. NATO members had pledged to spend 2% of their GDP on defense by a deadline of last year. And while some have reached or exceeded that goal in recent years, others have fallen short. Now the Trump administration has asked for spending of 5% of GDP. (In 2023, the U.S. spent equivalent to 3.4% of its GDP on the military.)

Cox of the London School of Economics thinks the 5% goal the U.S. would like is “impossible,” but notes that Europeans “are genuinely feeling that they need to do more … not just to placate Trump, but also to make a greater contribution to their own security.” He also acknowledges that Europe will continue to rely on the U.S. for logistics, intelligence and subsidies.

At the U.N., the U.S. refuses to condemn Russia for Ukraine invasion

At the United Nations General Assembly on Monday, the U.S. voted against condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. chargé d’affaires ad interim, Dorothy Shea, said the resolution only perpetuated “a war of words rather than an end to the war.”

The vote places the U.S. in unusual company, as it sided with North Korea, Iran and 15 other countries against a Europe-backed Ukrainian resolution. China, along with 64 other countries, abstained.

The resolution passed, 93-18.