Is Stay-in-Place Currently A Wise Policy For Alabama?
Most governors, including Alabama’s, have issued “stay-at-home” orders and shut down many businesses as a way to fight the spread of the coronavirus. But those efforts come with a huge economic cost as millions of people suddenly find themselves out of work. It’s a tension being hashed out by leaders and policy makers. It was also the subject of a formal debate this week in Birmingham.
Typically a debate would consist of two podiums on a stage and an audience watching. That is not possible in this era of COVID-19. Instead, this debate, sponsored by the Harvard Club of Birmingham, is a video conference over a lunch hour.
It still has the essentials with two people taking opposing sides and chance for them to question each other, plus a periodic reminder to hit mute. Perhaps the coronavirus equivalent of “silence your phones.”
The specific question at hand: “Is Stay-in-Place Currently a Wise Policy for Alabama?” Dr. Ellen Eaton, an infectious disease specialist at UAB, leads off with her argument in support.
“When you think about our community’s response to the coronavirus, specifically the novel coronavirus, we have very few preventive tools and even fewer treatment tools,” Eaton says.
She argues that without a vaccine or proven drugs therapies, the only tool really is social distancing. She adds easing up will mean a spike in cases. Eaton says in order to handle that we need widespread testing, enough medical staff, plus sufficient protective equipment. She says that’s not reality right now, so relaxing the policy is premature.
The opposing view comes from Kent Osband. He’s an economist in Birmingham who previously worked for the International Monetary Fund and the RAND Corporation. He likens the situation to a hurricane —models projected a category five storm with hospitals overwhelmed.
“In fact the evidence so far suggests a category two not a category four to five, roughly comparable to one extra season of flu,” Osband says. “Local hospitals are operating greatly under capacity.”
He says the lockdown has caused massive economic damage and panic. Osband is skeptical that social distancing is that effective based on the experience of some European countries with looser restrictions. He adds the current policy hampers our ability to fight future waves of COVID-19 by reducing heard immunity.
“We need to have, oddly enough, bad as it sounds, we need to have more infections not less,” Osband says.
With their cases laid out the back and forth continues. Eaton says the apparent reduced impact of the coronavirus is a sign of success.
“Remember, we said early on if this works people are going to say we’re overreacting,” Eaton says. “What you’re telling me is we overreacted. Well, could it be that we were right?”
Osband asks about developing countries, with many living in extreme poverty, where social distancing is difficult.
“What about India?” he asks. “Why are we getting so few cases in the developing world?”
“In the developing countries, remember if you don’t have a test, you don’t have a case,” Eaton replies.
The moderator guides the conversation and looks for points of common ground. There’s general agreement the data available is limited and incomplete.
Then toward the end of the debate, Osband puts forth an idea. Why not reopen Birmingham, cautiously, as a test case?
“And you know what? If that’s a mistake, then we’ll teach the country by negative example,” Osband says “It won’t be the first time Birmingham has taught the country by negative example and it won’t be the worst negative example.”
Time is running short and the debate just kind of ends without resolution. There’s no winner, but that’s by design. This debate is intended to be a discourse and a chance to examine ideas.
In one way, it’s an intellectual exercise over a lunch hour. In another way, it reflects a real-world debate happening right now.
In that debate, a decision will have to be made. Alabama’s shelter-in-place order ends Thursday, April 30, at 5 p.m.
Deadly storms sweep through the South, leaving at least nine fatalities
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said all of the state's 120 counties were impacted by the storm. "The biggest challenge of this event is it's everywhere."
Congo says Rwanda-backed rebels occupy a 2nd major city in its mineral-rich east
Rwanda-backed rebels reached the center of east Congo's second largest city, Bukavu, on Sunday morning in an unprecedented expansion of their reach in their yearslong fighting.
Protests are set to take place on Presidents Day. Here is why
A series of protests against the Trump administration's actions is planned for Presidents Day.
January 6th … the board game?
Fight for America! is a new art installation about democracy that invites audiences to play a war game — battling over the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
Fans in Montreal loudly boo U.S. anthem prior to Americans’ 4 Nations game vs. Canada
It's the second time "The Star-Spangled Banner" drew that reaction in two games the United States has played at the NHL-run international tournament.
At least 18 people are dead after a stampede at New Delhi railway station in India
Many of the victims were Hindu pilgrims who were traveling to the Maha Kumbh festival in northern India. Thousands of people were gathered at the New Delhi railway station waiting to board a train.