Wholesale egg prices are going down. How soon will it affect your grocery bill?

After months of sticker shock from the nationwide egg crisis, relief might finally be on the way.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Friday that the national average wholesale price of eggs has been steadily declining since late February. In other words, the cost that distributors are charging retailers is going down.

According to the latest USDA report, the average wholesale cost of large white eggs was $4.15 per dozen — about half of what it was just a few weeks ago.

The drop in wholesale prices is thanks to the absence of major bird flu outbreaks so far in March, which has allowed the nation’s egg supply to start recovering. That’s a positive sign, economists told NPR, but how soon prices might change at the grocery store will depend on a few key factors.

Here’s what to know.

Retail egg prices may drop soon if bird flu stays at bay

Wholesale egg prices have been dropping for three weeks in a row, according to the USDA. But that might not be reflected at your local grocery store. According to Joseph Balagtas, a professor of agriculture economics at Purdue University, that’s not unusual.

“The eggs we see [at] the store today were purchased by the retailer at a wholesale price that prevailed a couple weeks ago,” he said in an email. Inventory issues could play a role, as well, but he anticipates that store egg prices may start to ease within a matter of days.

Jadrian Wooten, an economics professor at Virginia Tech, said part of the reason for the lag could be that grocery store chains are wary of cutting prices too quickly. There’s still an ongoing concern about future bird flu outbreaks, which could disrupt supply again.

“They’re always going to lower egg prices a little bit slower than the wholesale side of things would do,” he said. Wooten believes the biggest factor will be whether the virus stays contained.

“ As long as we’re on the path that we’re on, we should see those prices come down in the next few weeks.” he said. “Unfortunately, if bird flu were to spring up again, if there was another major outbreak at another large farm, then I think you’ll see the exact opposite.”

Lower demand might help lower cost. So don’t panic-buy your eggs, experts say

It’s no surprise that soaring egg costs have left many Americans looking elsewhere for a source of protein. Ironically, that attitude shift may be helping keep egg prices from rising even further.

“That should happen, because high prices is really the market signal to us consumers to buy fewer eggs. If we buy fewer eggs, that leads to some lower prices,” David Anderson, a livestock economist and professor at Texas A&M University, said in an email.

That’s the reason Wooten from Virginia Tech advises customers against buying eggs in bulk when they’re worried that prices might go up. “ Some of what might be driving egg prices is the panic buying that people have been doing over the past couple months,” he said.

What about Easter and Passover? Economists tell NPR that those holidays usually cause a bump in demand. But they don’t suspect it will be a major barrier to bringing down retail costs.

What about the concern over price gouging?

In January, a group of Democratic lawmakers said food companies “often exploit crises like pandemics and avian flu outbreaks as an opportunity to raise prices beyond what is needed to cover rising costs.” And earlier this month, several media outlets reported that the Justice Department had opened an investigation into whether major egg producers played an intentional role in spiking prices. (NPR has not independently confirmed the investigation.)

But the economists NPR spoke to remain skeptical that price gouging was at play. Balagtas from Purdue said wholesale prices have consistently aligned with trends in bird flu cases and egg production. He said there’s evidence to suggest retailers have exercised restraint when it comes to raising prices.

“From May 2024 through last month, wholesale egg prices rose by 350%. Over that same time period, retail prices rose by 120%,” he said. Balagtas added that it suggests “retailers are trying not to pass the full costs of higher wholesale prices on to consumers.”

Anderson from Texas A&M University similarly said he does not believe the concern of price-gouging applies to the egg crisis, because the fight against bird flu has been so costly for producers.

“We know bird flu has dramatically cut supplies leading to higher prices,” he said. “If you got bird flu, then you have no eggs to sell and you are not benefiting from higher prices.”

Will a carton of eggs ever be $2 again?

It’s head-spinning to remember that a dozen eggs were close to $2 for a brief time in 2023. Last month, NPR reported that a dozen eggs could cost anywhere from $4 to more than $8 in grocery stores. The average price was $5.90 for a dozen large eggs in February, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index.

Wooten said he’s hopeful that Americans can see egg prices return to between $2 to $3. “I don’t think it’s going to take years to get us back to that,” he said.

It takes six months to a year for farms to recuperate when they lose a flock of egg-laying hens to bird flu.

“Hopefully by the summer, like those farms that lost a bunch, they would now have basically brand new hens that are reproducing kind of full steam ahead,” Wooten said. “But again, that goes back to assuming that bird flu doesn’t spike back up.”