Republicans advance the mid-decade redistricting fight into swing-state North Carolina

RALEIGH, N.C. — North Carolina is poised to become the first swing state to draw new congressional districts amid a nationwide arms race between Republicans and Democrats to secure additional seats ahead of next year’s midterm election.

President Trump initiated the mid-decade battle to help the GOP keep control of the U.S. House.

In North Carolina, Republican legislative leaders announced last week they wanted to redraw the map with the aim of winning 11 of the state’s 14 congressional districts. The GOP currently controls 10 of the seats.

To accomplish that, Republicans focused on the 1st Congressional District, in the northeastern corner of the state. The 1st is the state’s only swing district and has been represented by Black lawmakers for decades, most recently two-term U.S. Rep. Don Davis, a Democrat.

“These maps are a political weapon”

The proposed map moves six coastal counties and some precincts in another county into the 1st Congressional District, making it more conservative. In return, four agriculture-oriented counties around Goldsboro, Kinston and Wilson are shifted into the 3rd District.

Opponents argue that the new map dilutes the voting power of Black residents in eastern North Carolina.

“These maps are a political weapon, and Black voters are the target,” said Sen. Kandie Smith, who along with all 19 of her Democratic colleagues formally protested the new map Monday.

The proportion of Black voters in the current 1st District is about 40%, higher than any other in the state. That would drop to 32% under the new map, while the proportion of Black voters in the 3rd District would only rise to 29%.

Republicans have maintained they are drawing the new districts to help their political party.

“Republicans hold a razor-thin margin in the United States House of Representatives,” state Sen. Ralph Hise, who drew the new map with help from staff, told a legislative committee on Monday. “And if Democrats flip four seats in the upcoming midterm elections, they will take control of the House and torpedo President Trump’s agenda.”

The GOP rationale is likely an attempt to get ahead of lawsuits, said Chris Cooper, director of Western Carolina University’s Haire Institute for Public Policy.

Both North Carolina courts and the U.S. Supreme Court have ruled in recent years that they will not overturn maps on the basis of partisan gerrymandering but could if a map represents a racial gerrymander. (The U.S. Supreme Court may soon rule differently on racial gerrymanders.)

“If [North Carolina Republicans] can say that partisanship part out loud, I think they probably think that puts them on even better, firmer grounds,” Cooper said.

More congressional maps than elections

Redistricting has become a near-constant in North Carolina politics.

Typically, redistricting only happens at the beginning of a decade, after new census results.

But lawsuits and court rulings have meant that the map now under consideration would be the state’s seventh congressional map since 2016, and the fifth version this decade.

That’s more maps than elections.

Unlike most of the other maps, the North Carolina General Assembly decided to draw this latest one. In most other cases, either state or federal courts directed it to draw new districts in response to claims of partisan or racial gerrymandering.

The current congressional map follows a 2023 ruling by a new GOP majority on the North Carolina Supreme Court, which reversed a previous decision finding a map unconstitutional due to partisan gerrymandering. That 2023 ruling set the stage for the general assembly to do away with a map that had resulted in seven Republicans and seven Democrats in Congress, in favor of a 2024 map that made three additional seats safely Republican.

Part of a national arms race

The North Carolina state Senate has approved the new redistricting plan, with final passage expected by the Republican-led House.

Gov. Josh Stein, a Democrat, can’t veto redistricting proposals.

If enacted, the North Carolina map would become part of a larger congressional redistricting battle.

At Trump’s urging, Texas started the fight earlier this year, with GOP lawmakers there redrawing maps to shift five seats toward their party. California responded by putting a referendum on the state’s ballot in November that, if passed, would shift five seats toward Democrats.

Meanwhile, Republicans in Missouri redrew their districts to shift one seat toward the GOP, although there is an effort underway to secure enough signatures to require that voters approve the new map in a referendum.

Republicans have their sights on other states, including Indiana and Kansas.