Poll: Majorities say state of the union is not strong, and Trump is rushing change

Majorities say the state of the union is not strong, that the country is headed in the wrong direction and President Trump is rushing to make changes without considering their impact, a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds.

There are some real warning signs for Trump, particularly with independents, who oppose his cuts to the federal government, as well as his approach to foreign policy and the economy.

Most respondents expect prices to go up. They also believe federal workers are essential to making the government function and are not huge fans of Elon Musk, who is shepherding Trump’s government overhaul. They don’t think Trump would follow court orders springing up from his slew of executive orders, and don’t believe that the U.S. system of checks and balances is working well.

Only on immigration do more see Trump’s approach as change for the better — and only narrowly.

Even though a majority thinks the country is headed in the wrong direction, views on that have improved from the past couple of years. That’s largely due to Republicans, who overwhelmingly support what Trump is doing.

The findings, the result of interviews and responses from nearly 1,700 Americans adults collected online, by text and over the phone from Feb. 24-26, come a day before Trump is set to deliver an address to a joint session of Congress. (It will have the look and feel of a State of the Union address, but is technically not one.)

The state of the union is … divided

A slim majority of respondents — 53% — said the state of the union is either not very strong or not strong at all. A similar 54% said the country is headed in the wrong direction.

Even though those are majority-negative views of the country, they are improvements over recent years. Under former President Joe Biden, in January 2023, 62% overall said the state of the union was not strong. In December of last year, 64% said the country was headed in the wrong direction.

Like so much of U.S. politics, there are sharp divides by political party. In this most recent survey, three-quarters of Democrats said the state of the union is not very strong, while three-quarters of Republicans said the opposite.

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But when it comes to independents, who often determine elections, two-thirds said the state of the union was not strong.

Trump approval starts with a lower approval than recent presidents — except himself

When Trump left office in 2021, he had a 38% approval rating, so the 45% in the first Marist poll of Trump’s presidency is an improvement. It’s also higher than the 39% rating Trump came into his first term with.

But only 34% of independents approve of the job he’s doing now, and his overall score is lower than where all other presidents started out since Gallup has been tracking presidential approval ratings, except for Trump in his first term:

• Biden (2021) 57%
• Trump (2017) 44%
• Obama (2009) 67%
• Bush (2001) 57%
• Clinton (1993) 58%
• Bush (1989) 51%
• Reagan (1981) 51%
• Carter (1977) 66%
• Ford (1974) 71%
• Nixon (1969) 59%
• Johnson (1963) 78%
• Kennedy (1961) 72%
• Eisenhower (1953) 68%
• Truman (1945) 87%

Most say Trump is making changes too hastily, and what he’s doing isn’t broadly popular

A majority of respondents — 56% — think Trump is rushing to make changes without considering their impact. That includes 65% independents.

Most said the cuts to the federal government are doing more harm than good (55%), and 60% said federal employees are essential, including two-thirds of independents, compared to 40% overall who said the country could function effectively without most of them.

Meanwhile, Musk, who is advising Trump on slashing the federal government, continues to be unpopular. Just 39% had a favorable opinion of him in the survey, roughly unchanged from January — prior to inauguration. That’s also the same percentage who have a favorable view of DOGE, Musk’s government efficiency project.

So much of what Trump is doing appears tailored to Republicans because his moves are largely unpopular with independents and Democrats.

Carter Deaderick, a Republican voter from Marietta, Ga., told NPR she understands why Trump is moving quickly to implement parts of his agenda.

“He’s doing what he said he was going to do, which most presidents have not,” said Deaderick, who participated in NPR’s poll.

“I like how he gets it done and he works nonstop for it,” she added. “I respect that.”

As DOGE associates make rapid changes to the federal workforce, they are conducting mass firings — actions that now face legal challenges.

David Nicholas, a Republican voter in Port St. Lucie, Fla., expressed sympathy for those federal workers, but said he still backs the DOGE effort.

“I’ve been laid off before different times over the years, and nobody really [cared] about my feelings or anything like that,” said the poll respondent, who is not a government worker. “Maybe some [federal] programs should still be out there. But I think we need to tighten the belt and save the taxpayers some money because I’m one of them.”

Trump is narrowly underwater on whether people think he’s making changes for the better or worse when it comes to the economy (42% better, 46% worse) and foreign policy (44% better, 49% worse). A majority — 57% — said they expect prices to go up in the next 6 months, and 65% think the U.S. is either not doing enough or doing about the right amount to support Ukraine. Only a third said the U.S. is giving too much support, but that includes 56% of Republicans. The survey was completed before Friday’s dramatic Oval Office meeting that has created a further rift between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Trump does slightly better on immigration (47% better, 43% worse), but independents think Trump’s approach on immigration is making things worse by 5 points (40% better, 45% worse).

More independents think Trump is making things worse rather than better when it comes to the economy and foreign policy by a whopping 20 points each.

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Respondents were also overwhelmingly against the idea of dismantling the Department of Education (63% oppose) and taking ownership of Gaza (71% oppose), as Trump has proposed.

Republicans in the poll, though, favored abolishing the Education Department and were split on ownership of Gaza.

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Most people — 58% — said they aren’t confident Trump would follow court orders if they block his executive actions.

There has also been a severe decline in faith in the U.S.’s system of checks and balances. Just 43% think it is working well, down from 66% in December, driven by Democrats and independents.