One company forecasting a better year ahead? Dollar General
In a year of tariffs and some shoppers tightening budgets, one company stands apart from many retailers because it’s upgrading — rather than lowering — its financial forecast.
That company is Dollar General, the largest U.S. dollar-store chain.
So far this year, people are spending more at Dollar General — enough that sales jumped 2.4% from February through April compared to the same quarter last year, the company reported on Tuesday. In part, that’s thanks to shoppers trading down from more expensive stores.
Historically, dollar stores thrive during tough economic times, as more people look for cheaper places to shop. In recent months, economists have shifted their recession projections as President Trump repeatedly changes the scale of tariffs on imports, which at one point reached 145% on China and 10% on almost the whole world.
Dollar General might raise prices because of tariffs but it’s the last resort, CEO Todd Vasos told investors on an earnings call. The chain is attracting even more lower-income shoppers than usual, along with middle-income shoppers looking for deals.
Vasos said nearly two-thirds of Dollar General shoppers have told the company they expect to cut back spending even on necessities in the year ahead. A quarter of shoppers have noted having less income this year.
“This is a tight environment for the consumer, and we’ll be there for her,” Vasos said.
Major consumer brands, including Pepsi and Tide-maker Procter & Gamble, have been sounding alarms about consumer spending in the U.S. Campbell’s on Monday said more shoppers are cooking at home, rather than splurging on restaurants, and spending more on its canned soups and sauces.
Retailers have felt the pressure to comment carefully on tariffs to avoid the president’s criticism. Trump attacked Walmart on social media last month after the retail giant said it was forced to raise prices. Target has now downplayed tariff-related price hikes, while lowering its financial forecast for the year. Home Depot said it didn’t plan broad price increases, though some prices might go up and some items may disappear.
Dollar General on Tuesday forecast its net sales to grow between 3.7% and 4.7% in the year ending on Jan. 30, 2026. That’s 0.3% more than prior expectations.
Part of the retailer’s raised forecast also has to do with the chain’s hopes to mitigate tariff-related cost increases. That includes pushing suppliers to eat some costs, finding cheaper substitute products and shifting manufacturing locations.
Dollar General’s latest forecast assumes that current tariff rates — lowered to 30% on Chinese imports through a temporary deal — will remain in place through mid-August. The retailer still imports the majority of its goods from China, though Vasos said he’s worked to decrease the share of Chinese imports.
On Tuesday morning, the higher financial forecast sent Dollar General shares up more than 12%. The stock price of rivals Five Below and Dollar Tree, which owns Family Dollar, also rose. The two companies are slated to report their earnings on Wednesday.
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