Ecuador’s next president faces rampant drug violence and few resources to combat it

GUAYAQUIL, Ecuador — Sunday’s presidential election in Ecuador is one of the closest and most decisive in recent years. It comes as drug gang violence hits record levels, with Ecuador now experiencing one of the highest homicide rates in Latin America. At the same time the economy has stalled leaving few resources to combat the rising crime.

Once one of the most peaceful countries in the region, Ecuador has become a major transportation hub for cocaine trafficking to the U.S. and Europe.

Sunday’s vote is a repeat of the 2023 race between Daniel Noboa, now the president, and former lawmaker and lawyer Luisa González. Two years later, this contest has become much tighter. During the first round last February, both candidates won about 44 percent of the vote.

While the contest is shaping up as a battle between a right-wing, pro-business incumbent versus a left-wing populist, the number one issue on voter’s minds is combating the narco-fueled violence that has overtaken the country.

Incumbent Noboa, a millionaire and Trump ally

Soon after taking office in 2023, President Noboa declared drug trafficking gangs “terrorists”, imposing a state of emergency due to the “internal armed conflict” facing his country. He’s relied heavily on the military and has arrested thousands.

Although he’s the son of one of Ecuador’s richest banana magnates,  the 37-year old portrays himself as a political outsider and shuns labels. He’s married to a healthy lifestyle youtuber and his social media campaigns show off his physique in outfits more typical for a personal trainer than a president. Life-size cutouts of him are ubiquitous throughout the country.

His campaign speeches are quick and short on detail and during a recent presidential debate, he struggled to articulate his anti-crime plan. But supporters insist he’s the best choice to halt the violence. He has openly solicited the help of foreign governments in the fight against the drug gangs and has personally lobbied close ally  President Trump to intervene in the fight against drug traffickers.

Leftist challenger Luisa González, protégé of former populist president living in exile

The 47-year-old former lawmaker has a slight lead going into Sunday’s race. Her new found edge is attributed to the sharp rise in the number of homicides in the country — more than 700 in both January and February this year, according to the Interior Ministry. That’s the highest number experienced since official figures have been kept.

But González is closely tied to former populist firebrand Rafael Correa, who ran Ecuador for 10 years. Correa self-exiled to Europe after being convicted of corruption at home, but still enjoys a loyal following. That gives González a strong base but opens her to much criticism. Noboa warns her presidency would send Ecuador into a communist spiral, akin to neighboring Venezuela and Nicaragua.

González denies the claims and says although she wants more social spending to help the poor and marginalized communities experiencing most of the violence, she will keep the military at the forefront of combating crime gangs. She’s called for more technology and coordination along Ecuador’s combative coastline and ports.

Are there the resources to fight rising crime in Ecuador?

The short answer is no. The economy has stalled with its GDP falling in each of the last three quarters and Ecuador’s economic growth this year is expected to be close to the bottom compared to other Latin American countries.

Ecuador’s rampant violence with the rise of criminal narco gangs is at the forefront of voter’s minds. While Noboa initially received high praise for his hard line moves against international and local trafficking groups, his policies have faltered of late.

He’s made frequent trips to Washington — where he was one of a select handful of world leaders at the inauguration — and most recently Mar-a-Lago, to make a personal plea to President Trump, a close ally, to put U.S. troops along Ecuador’s coast. He even signed a security agreement with Erik Prince, founder of the disgraced former U.S. defense contractor Blackwater and posted pictures of the two together on social media.

González accuses Noboa of bringing “mercenaries” to Ecuador and shuns any foreign involvement which she says is a threat to the country’s sovereignty. Her political mentor, Rafael Correa closed a U.S. army facility in the north of Ecuador when he was president.

In a race too close to call, when will we know the results?

After nearly a decade of interim governments and interrupted presidential terms, this could be the first time in years that the incoming president could have a majority in the National Assembly. In last February’s election the newly expanded 151-seat National Assembly was split pretty evenly between Noboa’s and González’s parties.

Several small non-aligned parties captured the rest of the seats and will be easily swayed to give the presidential contest winner a working majority, said Sebastian Hurtado, a political risk consultant based in Quito. “That is key for making any progress on security or on the economy. I see political stability in good faith going forward and this is good news,” he told NPR.

The polls close at 5 pm local time (6 pm EST). Election watchers say with the race so close results could take hours and may not be released until the early hours on Monday.