Conservative Karol Nawrocki wins Poland’s presidential election

WARSAW, Poland — Conservative Karol Nawrocki won Poland’s weekend presidential runoff election, according to the final vote count on Monday. Nawrocki won 50.89% of votes in a very tight race against liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, who received 49.11%.

The close race had the country on edge since a first round two weeks earlier and through the night into Monday, revealing deep divisions in the country along the eastern flank of NATO and the European Union.

An early exit poll released Sunday evening suggested Trzaskowski was headed to victory before updated polling began to reverse the picture hours later.

The outcome indicates that Poland can be expected to take a more nationalist path under its new leader, who was backed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

The role of a president in Poland

Most day-to-day power in the Polish political system rests with a prime minister chosen by the parliament. However, the president’s role is not merely ceremonial. The office holds the power to influence foreign policy and to veto legislation.

Nawrocki will succeed Andrzej Duda, a conservative whose second and final term ends on Aug. 6.

A headache for Tusk

Prime Minister Donald Tusk came to power in late 2023 at the end of a coalition government that spans a broad ideological divide — so broad that it hasn’t been able to fulfill certain of Tusk’s electoral promises, such as loosening the restrictive abortion law.

But Duda’s veto power has been another obstacle. It has prevented Tusk from fulfilling promises to reverse laws that politicized the court system in a way that the European Union declared to be undemocratic.

Now it appears Tusk will have no way to fulfill those promises, which he had made both to voters and to the EU.

A former boxer, historian and political novice

Nawrocki, a 42-year-old historian, was tapped by the Law and Justice party as part of its push for a fresh start.

The party governed Poland from 2015 to 2023, when it lost power to a centrist coalition led by Tusk. Some political observers predicted the party would never make a comeback, and Nawrocki was chosen as a new face who would not be burned by the scandals of the party’s eight years of rule.

Nawrocki has most recently been the head of the Institute of National Remembrance, which embraces nationalist historical narratives. He led efforts to topple monuments to the Soviet Red Army in Poland, and Russia responded by putting him on a wanted list, according to Polish media reports.

Nawrocki’s supporters describe him as the embodiment of traditional, patriotic values. Those who oppose secular trends, including LGBTQ+ visibility, have embraced him, viewing him as a reflection of the traditional values they grew up with.

The Trump factor

Trump made it clear he wanted Nawrocki as Poland’s president.

The conservative group CPAC held its first meeting in Poland last week to give Nawrocki a boost. Kristi Noem, the U.S. Homeland Security Secretary and a prominent Trump ally, strongly praised Nawrocki and urged Poles to vote for him.

The U.S. has about 10,000 troops stationed in Poland and Noem suggested that military ties could deepen with Nawrocki as president.

A common refrain from Nawrocki’s supporters is that he will restore “normality,” as they believe Trump has done. U.S. flags often appeared at Nawrocki’s rallies, and his supporters believed that he offered a better chance for good ties with the Trump administration.