Blue New Jersey is expecting a very close race for governor this November

One of the country’s few odd-year gubernatorial elections is capturing national attention, as the polls show an increasingly close race between the top two contenders to be New Jersey’s next governor.

Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy pilot first elected to Congress in 2018, is facing off against pro-Trump Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a longtime New Jersey politician and small business owner. In the closing weeks, both candidates have hurled increasingly personal attacks against one another and received endorsements from some of the biggest names in their parties.

President Trump, who endorsed Ciattarelli earlier this year, is planning to host tele-rallies for the Republican contender, Axios reported. Meanwhile, former President Barack Obama released an endorsement video for Sherrill last week, calling the Democratic Congresswoman the “right choice” to be New Jersey’s next governor.

Most mainstream polls show Sherrill leading Ciattarelli, but in some cases the margin is smaller than might be expected in the historically blue state. One poll from September showed the candidates tied.

Political experts say although Democrats have a three-to-two voter registration advantage over Republicans in New Jersey, the Garden State has a history of electing governors from both major political parties.

“As blue as New Jersey might be in presidential races and U.S. Senate races too, the state is decidedly purple when it comes to gubernatorial elections,” says Ben Dworkin, director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy & Citizenship at Rowan University.

Phil Murphy, the state’s current Democratic governor is leaving office after serving a limit of two terms. If Sherrill wins, it would be the first time since the 1960s that New Jersey voters elected a governor from the same party three terms in a row.

The campaign has gotten increasingly personal

Tensions have grown in the race to be Murphy’s successor, with the two candidates and their campaigns trading personal attacks in recent weeks.

Ciattarelli, who served in the state Assembly from 2011-2018 and is running for New Jersey governor for the third time, has repeatedly slammed Sherrill for being prohibited from walking at her Naval Academy graduation in 1994 in the midst of a cheating scandal at the school.

Sherrill has said she was punished by the academy for refusing to turn in her classmates, and she’s criticized the Trump administration for improperly releasing her largely unredacted military records to an ally of Ciattarelli’s campaign.

Meanwhile, Sherrill, who is also a former federal prosecutor, has blasted Ciattarelli’s former medical publishing company for producing materials downplaying the dangers of opioids. In a televised debate earlier this month, Sherrill said Ciattarelli was responsible for killing tens of thousands of people in New Jersey.

Ciattarelli’s campaign has threatened to sue Sherrill for defamation over those comments, with campaign strategist Chris Russell accusing Sherrill of “baselessly and recklessly accusing a political opponent of mass murder.”

Also looming large over the campaign is Trump, who frequents his golf course in Bedminster, in Central New Jersey. Ciattarelli’s embrace of Trump earned him the president’s endorsement, despite the fact that in 2016 he called Trump “a charlatan and an embarrassment.” Sherrill has continued to tie Ciattarelli to the president and is urging New Jersey voters to reject Trump’s MAGA movement at the polls.

Affordability is top of mind for voters

Though the personal attacks have stepped up, Dworkin doubts they will overpower voters’ concerns about skyrocketing prices.

“The people who are going to make a difference, who are truly trying to decide where they will vote, want to talk about the cost of living and affordability,” he says.

Because both Sherrill and Ciattarelli have talked about New Jersey’s high cost of living, it may come down to who has the more convincing message.

Nicole Nance, a Republican from Cherry Hill, said at a recent campaign event for Ciattarelli that she thinks his background as an accountant will be useful as he tries to lower the state’s notoriously high property taxes.

“I think I’d rather have a [certified public accountant] with some type of experience help with the budget, you know, help run the state, than a pilot,” she said, referring to Sherrill’s military background.

But Victor Carstarphen, the Democratic mayor of Camden in South Jersey, says he supports Sherrill’s plans to build more housing and freeze rising energy costs.

“Listen, she’s talked about these utilities, and how these utilities is going up higher and higher, and that affects a community like Camden,” he says. “She hits it spot on with that.”

In June, New Jerseyans’ electricity bills surged 17% to 20% depending on their provider, according to the state Board of Public Utilities.