Trump to hold de facto midterm kickoff in Iowa focused on the economy, energy prices

President Trump will hold a rally in Iowa on Tuesday to preview the administration’s campaign message ahead of the midterm elections. It comes as polls show that voters are unhappy with many elements of his messaging so far.

Tuesday’s speech in Clive, Iowa, is expected to focus on energy and the economy — two areas where Trump’s policy changes in the last year have negatively impacted the state.

Trump was last in Iowa on the eve of July 4, 2025, where he kicked off a yearlong celebration of America’s 250th birthday and touted Congress’ passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which enacted sweeping cuts to taxes and social safety net programs.

As the tax season starts, voters will begin to see the impact of the law’s signature policies, like no tax on tips and overtime and an expanded child tax credit. Later this week, the Treasury Department will hold a summit to release more details about the “Trump Accounts” created by the law, which will be seeded with a $1,000 government contribution for babies born between 2025 and 2028 and which will serve as investment accounts for newborns.

Much has changed in those six months, though, as polling data suggests the American public has soured on the Trump administration’s overhaul of the country’s foreign and domestic agenda. That includes an aggressive immigration enforcement crackdown in Minnesota where federal agents shot and killed two people in two different incidents this month.

Last week, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that his message for Iowa was “straight to the farmers,” touting the billions of dollars the administration made available as bridge payments to farmers negatively affected by the president’s tariff policies.

“You know, the farmers like Trump, and I like the farmers,” Trump said. “The farmers have been very special to me. Very successful.”

The speech also comes as farming industry groups have expressed frustration that the Republican-led House failed to include a measure allowing higher-ethanol E15 fuel to be sold year-round in its spending plan that passed last week.

Ahead of Friday’s deadline to avoid a partial government shutdown, Senate Democrats say they will not vote to fund the Department of Homeland Security without additional guardrails for immigration enforcement after the latest shooting of a U.S. citizen by federal immigration agents.

Trump’s visit to Iowa also highlights the political gravity that Republicans must overcome in an environment where voters are already primed to express displeasure with the party in power. The president earned 55% of the vote statewide in 2024 and Democrats hold only one statewide office, but that Democrat, auditor Rob Sand, has drastically outraised his opponents in the race for governor.

Control of Congress could hinge on Iowa, too: Three of its four House districts could be competitive, and national Democrats see the retirement of Republican Sen. Joni Ernst as an opportunity as Trump’s popularity continues to plummet.

Recent surveys of Trump’s approval rating find the president struggling with key demographics that swung toward Republicans in 2024 and also losing support on issues like immigration and the economy. At the state level, Iowa often gives Trump a lower approval rating than any other Republican-led state.