Trade tensions hang over Trump’s Asia trip, but he still aims to make a deal

President Trump is headed to Asia for a nearly week-long trip that is scheduled to include a high-stakes meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Korea.

The trip will also include visits to Malaysia and Japan; Trump is expected to meet with leaders of those countries, as well.

Trump’s visit comes during an uncertain time in the region and at home, where a prolonged government shutdown remains unresolved. The U.S. has yet to finalize trade agreements with Japan and Korea, and tensions between the U.S. and China over trade have escalated in recent weeks, though Trump is insisting he’ll be able to make a deal with Xi.

There was also a border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia. That tension has been simmering for years, but erupted over the summer, leaving dozens of civilians and soldiers dead. Both countries agreed to a ceasefire, in part after Trump threatened them with higher tariffs if the fighting continued. A negotiated peace agreement is supposed to be signed at a summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Kuala Lumpur.

Trump presides over Cambodia-Thailand peace agreement in Malaysia

Trump will attend the ASEAN summit for the first time since 2017, where a key component will be presiding over the peace agreement.

For several months, the president has been touting his ability to end “unendable” wars around the world, including this conflict in Southeast Asia.

“I have ended seven unending wars. They said they were unendable. You’re never going to get them solved,” Trump said in his speech to the United Nations General Assembly last month. “No president or prime minister, and for that matter no other country, has ever done anything close to that, and I did it in just seven months. It’s never happened before. There’s never been anything like that.”

A U.S. official who spoke to reporters on the condition of anonymity said that they don’t expect China to participate in the peace agreement signing ceremony because the U.S. doesn’t believe China played a “significant” or “consequential” role in the peace agreement, though it did take part in the mediations. On Air Force One Friday night, Trump told reporters that the Chinese “weren’t involved” in the deal but did give credit to Malaysia.

Trump will meet with Japan’s new prime minister and talk trade with Korea

South Korea has also recently dealt with its own tumult, having recently elected President Lee Jae Myung, after Lee’s predecessor declared martial law and was later impeached.

Lee has negotiated some framework of a trade agreement with Trump, but details of the deal are yet to be finalized, including Korea’s pledge to invest $350 billion in the U.S.

Trump will meet with Lee while in Korea — the first time the two have met in person since a recent ICE raid at a Hyundai-LG battery plant in Georgia resulted in the temporary detention of 300 South Korean workers and shocked Koreans back home.

In addition to trade, it’s likely that Lee and Trump will also discuss North Korea. Lee recently told CNN he hopes Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un can “engage in dialogue.” Trump said Friday that he was open to meeting with Kim.

“I had a great relationship with him, and he probably knows I’m coming, right?” he told reporters. “But, if you want to put out the word, I’m open to it.”

While in Japan, Trump will sit down with the newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi — the nation’s first female prime minister — and he will be hosted by the emperor.

Trump will also be making remarks at the USS George Washington at the U.S. naval base in Yokosuka.

The Trump-Xi meeting might not move the needle

Finally, Trump’s trip will end with a highly anticipated meeting with Xi on Oct. 30 — though Beijing has not yet confirmed the meeting.

There have been months of back-and-forth on tariff negotiations between the U.S. and China that has kept the global economy on edge. Tensions had simmered over the summer when the two countries agreed to de-escalate.

But earlier this month, Beijing caught Trump by surprise, announcing a further limit on exports of rare earths minerals, which the U.S. and other countries rely on for military equipment and other technologies.

Trump threatened to cancel his meeting with Xi altogether and hike tariffs.

“This was a real surprise, not only to me, but to all the Leaders of the Free World,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “I was to meet President Xi in two weeks, at APEC, in South Korea, but now there seems to be no reason to do so.”

Despite China’s recent moves, Trump spoke positively of his relationship with Xi more recently, and said he expects a “fantastic” deal with China.

Experts, though, say the meeting will likely be a moment for both countries to buy time.

“I’m not sure that either side is fully prepared to climb down from the positions that they’ve staked out,” said Ryan Hass, director of the China Center at Brookings, a liberal-leaning think tank in Washington.

He expects the meeting to result in an extension of the “trade truce” the U.S. and China agreed to over the summer to “allow time and space” for negotiators to finalize a trade agreement.