One week into the Iran war, the fallout is global

What began last Saturday as coordinated attacks on Iran by the U.S. and Israel has sprawled into a wider conflict with repercussions around the world.

The American-Israeli military campaign set off a series of attacks and counterattacks that have hit or threatened several Gulf nations. The conflict also triggered political tensions and economic upheaval, drawing in countries far beyond the Middle East.

More than 1,300 people in Iran have been killed as a result of the ongoing fighting, according to the Iranian Red Crescent Society. American and Israeli strikes killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as dozens of his top officials. The Iranian navy and air force have also been wiped out and soon, Israel and the U.S. will have complete control of Iranian skies, according to the Pentagon.

On Friday, President Trump said he would not negotiate with Iran unless it was prepared to unconditionally surrender — making it unclear when the fighting will cease and how many more nations may be pulled into the conflict.

Here’s what to know:

Countries caught in the war’s crossfire

Soon after the U.S. and Israel launched their first strikes, Iran carried out retaliatory attacks targeting Israel and U.S. military bases in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. Some of the strikes also hit civilian areas, including hotels and airports, as well as oil and gas infrastructure.

American forces intercepted many of the Iranian missile and drone attacks. But six U.S. soldiers were killed by an Iranian strike on a command center in Kuwait. At least 10 people in Israel have been killed as a result of the clashes, according to Israeli authorities. A drone strike also hit a British air force base on the Mediterranean island of Cyprus last Sunday, and the U.K. says it has intercepted more drones there since.

Iranian drones also struck its neighbor and former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan. Before the conflict, Azerbaijan wanted to stay neutral. But on Thursday, President Ilham Aliyev said in a speech, “We will not tolerate this unprovoked act of terror and aggression against Azerbaijan. Our Armed Forces have been instructed to prepare and implement appropriate retaliatory measures.”

Earlier this week, an Iranian missile headed toward Turkey, but was shot down by a U.S. warship, NPR previously reported. Turkey is also where many Iranians are fleeing amid continued bombardment in Iran by U.S. and Israeli militaries.

Meanwhile, fighting has spread to Lebanon after Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group, launched attacks on Israel. Hezbollah initially said its strikes were in revenge for the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader but later added they were because of ongoing Israeli attacks in Lebanon despite a ceasefire. Israeli forces, in turn, ordered Lebanese residents to evacuate as they unleashed attacks across southern and eastern Lebanon, including around the capital city of Beirut.

According to Lebanon’s Health Ministry, the Israeli strikes have killed at least 123 people as of Thursday. The Lebanese government has also taken steps to distance itself from Hezbollah, including issuing arrest warrants for members behind the strikes into Israel and calling for the dismantling of Hezbollah’s military wing.

Countries in South Asia are also on edge after a U.S. submarine sank an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka on Wednesday. The government of the small island off the coast of India has called for peace, adding that it does not want to become a victim of this war.

Testing of allies

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Beyond the fighting, the war has been a major test for allies of the U.S. and Iran.

France, Italy and the U.K. were initially wary of how the U.S. and Israel toppled Iran’s top leadership. But now, in order to protect their expatriate citizens and interests in the Middle East, as well as to prevent further escalation, the European nations have bolstered their military presence in the region.

The conflict has put a particular strain on the U.K.’s friendship with the U.S. Britain had initially rebuffed America’s request to use British military bases. Later, Britain walked back that decision somewhat, allowing the U.S. to use its bases for what it called “limited defensive action against missile facilities in Iran,” but President Trump has remained frustrated. 

The war is also deepening a feud between the U.S. and Spain. Earlier this week, Spain refused to allow the U.S. to use its two joint military bases, which serve as a strategic stopover for U.S. operations in the Middle East. In response, Trump has threatened to cut off all trade with Spain if the government did not cooperate.

At the same time, Spain, France, Italy, Britain, Greece and the Netherlands have all pledged to help protect European Union member Cyprus, Reuters reported.

Iran’s relationships with Gulf Arab states have also been shaken; while they have centuries-old trade and cultural ties, Iran has struck several of these states this past week. The conflict also threatens the region’s tourism and reputation as a global trade hub. It’s especially concerning for Dubai, which has prided itself as a safe haven in the Middle East but has been hit hard by Iranian strikes.

Global superpower China also has stepped in, sending an envoy to the Middle East. Though the country is considered an ally of Iran, China has urged both Iran and the U.S. to stop military operations and return to negotiations. Part of China’s concern is how the war will affect global energy markets, since the country is the world’s largest importer of oil and gas.

One of Iran’s biggest allies Russia has provided intelligence about targets to Iran, NPR independently confirmed. But for the most part, Russia has been watching from the sidelines. President Vladimir Putin issued a condolence letter following the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader. But the country has not stepped into the fighting nor has Iran asked for the help, the Kremlin said on Thursday.

Part of Russia’s hesitancy may be that it’s already dealing with the grinding war it launched in Ukraine. Russia could also potentially benefit from the attack on Iran if countries turn to Russia for oil.

Stakes for oil and financial markets

The conflict is also taking a toll on the global economy.

The shake-up is largely due to oil and the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that borders Iran and serves as a transit point for about a fifth of the world’s oil supply.

Iran declared the strait closed on Monday, which led Iraq, a major oil producer, to shut down some of its production. Meanwhile, the ongoing fighting caused Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery to suspend production. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have reported their oil refineries were struck over the past week.

Threats to the flow of oil are already sinking stock markets and stoking fears of high inflation. On Friday, oil prices surged above $90 per barrel — the highest since September 2023. The disruptions have already pushed up the average price of gasoline in the U.S. to $3.32 per gallon as of Friday, according to AAA.

India, a major buyer of crude oil from the Persian Gulf, is especially vulnerable to the shortage of oil. On Friday, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a 30-day waiver to allow Indian refineries to purchase Russian oil, which was previously under U.S. sanctions.

NPR’s Aya Batrawy in Dubai, Carrie Kahn in Tel Aviv, Hadeel Al-Shalchi in Beirut, Ruth Sherlock on the Turkish border with Iran, Charles Maynes in Moscow, Jennifer Pak in Beijing, Tom Bowman and Scott Horsley contributed reporting.