House to vote on renewing ACA subsidies as a potential deal takes shape in the Senate

Against the wishes of House Speaker Mike Johnson, the House of Representatives is set to vote Thursday on a measure that would renew enhanced health insurance subsidies that expired at the end of last year.

The three-year extension is expected to pass the House, but it may not go far in the Senate, where a similar measure failed in December. A bipartisan group of senators, however, say they are close to a deal on a compromise bill for the Affordable Care Act subsidies.

While the debate over health care costs absorbed much of the oxygen in Congress in the final weeks of 2025, the rush to take action on the lapsed subsidies is now happening as members find themselves grappling with questions about the direction of U.S. foreign policy following President Trump’s actions in Venezuela. That includes an expected vote in the Senate on Thursday on a resolution to block U.S. forces from further engaging in hostilities against Venezuela without congressional authorization.

Thursday’s votes are part of a whirlwind start to the new year for lawmakers. Adding to their to-do list is a fast-approaching Jan. 30 deadline to fund the government or risk a partial shutdown.

An end-run around the speaker on subsidies

Republican leadership for weeks refused to allow a vote on extending the subsidies.

Then just before the holiday recess, four swing-district Republicans joined with Democrats to force a vote on extending the subsidies for three years through what’s known as a discharge petition. The once rare legislative tool allows 218 or more rank-and-file members to sidestep the speaker and force a vote.

A procedural motion Wednesday to set up that final House vote won support from nine Republicans.

But even many backers acknowledge a clean three-year extension is unlikely to pass the Senate. The hope has been that success in the House would recharge bipartisan negotiations in the upper chamber, and there are signs that may be happening.

A small bipartisan group of senators have been negotiating this week, and several of them have told reporters they are nearing a deal.

“We’re in the red zone,” said Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, on Wednesday. “But that does not mean a touchdown. It could mean a 95-yard fumble.”

The path ahead in the Senate

Moreno says the emerging compromise centers on a two-year extension. In the second year, patients could opt to have the funds deposited in a Health Savings Account, instead of government subsidies going to the insurance company.

President Trump has pushed to give federal funding for health care costs directly to patients and has repeatedly decried the subsidies as government handouts to big insurance companies.

The plan would also include an income cap, among other changes Republicans have called for. Open enrollment would likely be extended so people who dropped their policies due to the premium spikes brought on by the expiration of subsidies can have an opportunity to sign up for coverage.

There are still some sticking points to a bipartisan deal. Some Republicans want more specific language around the prohibition of federal funding being used for abortion.

Trump told House Republicans this week that they may need to be “flexible on this.”

And there are also many Republicans deeply opposed to the enhanced subsidies at all, so even if the bipartisan group reaches a compromise, their ultimate fate remains unclear.

A fast start for Congress in 2026

As lawmakers look for consensus on the subsidies, questions about the future of the U.S. role in Venezuela have also taken on new urgency.

On Thursday, the Senate is is scheduled to vote on a resolution that would block military action against Venezuela without congressional approval. The resolution requires a simple majority to pass, but is expected to fall short of that threshold.

A similar measure failed last year, attracting support from two Republicans, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. Paul has sponsored the latest effort alongside a trio of Democrats: Tim Kaine of Virginia, Adam Schiff of California and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York.

In addition to votes on health care and Venezuela, lawmakers are also facing pressure on funding the government by a deadline of Jan. 30.

Congress has already signed off on full-year funding for some federal agencies, but the record-long government shutdown last fall ended with a continuing resolution that got funding flowing again for most departments only into the first month of the year.

Several of those appropriations bills are slated to come up for votes in the coming days, but appropriators are still working out the details for bills that cover more contentious areas — like the Department of Defense and the Department of Health and Human Services.

Meanwhile, the House is expected to vote Thursday on overriding two vetoes by President Trump just before the new year — a rare show of pushback from Republicans in Congress. One veto deals with water infrastructure in Colorado, while the other affects a Native American tribe in Florida.