5 takeaways from the U.S. ceasefire proposal for Israel and Hamas

TEL AVIV — The leaders of the U.S. and Israel say they have agreed to a broad plan that could end Israel’s war in Gaza.

But substantial uncertainties remain about when Israeli military forces would withdraw from most of the Gaza Strip, exactly how a transitional body would govern and police the enclave, and now, most critically, whether Hamas will acquiesce to its points.

Here are five takeaways from the plan and what could happen next.

The plan calls for an immediate end to the war and the return of hostages.

According to the plan, within 72 hours of agreement from all sides, Hamas would release 48 living and deceased hostages to Israel. In exchange, Israel would release 250 Palestinian prisoners held in Israel who are serving life sentences, as well as 1,700 Gazan residents who have been detained since the war began.

More food and medical aid would then be let into famine-stricken Gaza and would be distributed by the United Nations agencies and the Red Crescent. The plan’s language suggests there may be no role for the controversial Israeli- and U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.

Hamas would have to agree to “decommissioning” its weapons and dismantling its military infrastructure and tunnels, and it would have no role in Gaza anymore.

The plan encourages Palestinians to stay in Gaza, contrary to previous statements from Trump about displacing the nearly two million Palestinians from the enclave. It proposes a transitional body led by “qualified Palestinians and international experts” headed by the former British prime minister Tony Blair to oversee Gaza’s reconstruction.

But governance could be eventually handed over to the Palestinian Authority, which already oversees parts of the West Bank, another Palestinian territory which Israel occupies, provided it a broad series of reforms.

This is the most serious effort yet to end the Gaza war, with broad Arab backing.

There have been several proposals on how to end the war, including a French-Saudi one endorsed by the United Nations earlier this month, but this proposal has the broadest global support by far. Most crucially, Arab countries including Qatar and Egypt, which are close to Hamas, have endorsed Trump’s plan.

Israel says it’s signed on with the U.S., the United Kingdom’s prime minister called the proposal “profoundly welcome” and the European Commission’s president encouraged “all parties to seize the opportunity.”

Plus, the current U.S. proposal contains the most detailed outline so far for an immediate end of war tied to hostage releases as well as a more specific vision for rebuilding a postwar-Gaza.

Netanyahu is selling the plan as an Israeli security win, leaving troops in Gaza indefinitely.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is selling this proposed deal to his people as an achievement of Israel’s war goals: freeing hostages, and dismantling Hamas’ military capabilities and rule of Gaza. Israel would get what it wants the most – the hostages – within 72 hours.

In a video message, Netanyahu framed the proposal as an Israeli security victory: Israel would keep troops inside most of Gaza even after the hostages are freed, without a time-bound commitment for further withdrawal.

The hardest part of the proposal for Netanyahu and his government to swallow is the language about “conditions…for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood.” In the video Netanyahu released, he denied that Israel agreed to a Palestinian state. “Not at all, and it’s also not written in the deal,” Netanyahu said. The proposal offers only conditional, vague language with no time-bound commitment for a Palestinian state.

Hamas will find it difficult to accept the deal’s conditions, but will pay a heavy cost if it rejects.

Hamas will find it difficult to accept some conditions of the deal, especially the release of all its hostages up front while only getting a partial Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza. It considers itself a freedom-fighting resistance group and has adamantly rejected giving up its right to weapons.

Hamas has not issued a formal reply yet. Initial reaction from Hamas officials has been negative. Hamas official Mahmoud Mardawi said the plan’s provisions are close to Israel’s vision, but said Hamas would review the proposal. Then he published an old video of a Hamas leader disparaging Trump.

But Hamas finds itself under extreme pressure from its main lifeline, Arab allies Qatar and Egypt, and would risk losing their support if it said no. The language in the proposal about Hamas decommissioning its weapons could be vague enough for it to work around. A Hamas official previously told NPR it could be willing to relinquish a symbolic amount of guns. It also may draw inspiration from the case of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia based in Lebanon that signed a ceasefire deal with Israel last November to disarm in its stronghold, in Lebanon’s south, but has so far held out against orders to demilitarize across the entire country.

Hamas’ main goal is to end the war and survive, and if the deal succeeds in a hostage-prisoner exchange and an end of the war, Hamas may be able to sell it as a victory, leaving the question of Gaza’s demilitarization an issue to contend with later as Hamas calculates its next steps. But Hamas may also not see much in this plan that would guarantee its survival: the plan calls to disarm the group and offer its leaders amnesty and passage out of Gaza.

The plan could still fall apart.

Trump said if Hamas did not accept the proposal, he would support Israel’s continued war in Gaza. Netanyahu took that one step further, saying Israel would press on with the war if Hamas leaders “supposedly accept it and then basically do everything to counter it.” Israel broke a ceasefire earlier this year, accusing Hamas of scuttling it.

The plan also faces challenges from Netanyahu’s far-right governing partners, whom he depends on for his political survival. In a tweet, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich criticized several aspects of the plan, and raised the question whether Hamas would refuse the deal so Israel could go back to war with broader international backing.

In order to prevent Smotrich and other far-right politicians from quitting in protest and toppling the government, Netanyahu will not bring Trump’s plan for a vote in his cabinet, a person briefed by an Israeli official told NPR.

Another possibility is that there is a hostage-prisoner exchange and end of war, with no real progress on the rest of Trump’s vision for postwar Gaza.