In a small town less than an hour outside of Milwaukee, Democratic volunteers are stuffing pamphlets into plastic baggies that canvassers will take door knocking around the neighborhood.
The town of Elkhorn is in Walworth County, a Republican stronghold. But Democrats are trying to make some inroads here.
“Our goal in this office is to move the needle,” said Ellen Holly, a former chairperson of the Walworth County Democrats.
In a state where every vote matters, both Democratic and Republican campaigns are not only trying to win in counties where they’re strongest, they’re also trying to lose by less in places where votes for their candidate are harder to find.
Here’s how the math works
In many ways, “lose by less” has become the key term in the presidential campaign, according to Anthony Chergosky, who teaches political science at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse.
“Because Wisconsin elections are so competitive and so closely decided, the parties understand that any little gain anywhere could make the difference,” he said.
In Walworth County, Holly said the Wisconsin Democrats have a specific goal.
“I think the state figured out if we can pull 42%, then the state is good … everything we do here helps,” she said.
In 2020, President Biden won Wisconsin by just over 20,000 votes. Holly said that’s because of the work of places like the Elkhorn Democrats’ office.
“I can’t say that it was just because of us, but if we did nothing, he would not have won,” she said.
So what does the strategy look like in practice? For one, door knocking.
Barb Biggler and Margie Black are Democratic Party volunteers who live in Walworth County. As they were walking through a neighborhood where Trump signs fill the lawns, Biggler said she doesn’t think of it as “enemy territory.”
“I kinda don’t like to think about the ‘war’ and the ‘battle’ and that rough language,” she said. “It kinda scares me, so I don’t really want to be frightened by our own country.”
Many voters aren’t home when Biggler and Black knock. When they do find one who’s willing to talk, they don’t go in with a hard sales pitch. Instead, they lead with: “What are the issues important to you?”
They said in Walworth County they sometimes meet “quiet Harris voters” — people who promise to support the Democrat but don’t want to put a sign on their lawn.
That’s the mirror image of how Denise Salamone feels. She’s a Trump voter in a wealthy Democratic area on the edge of Milwaukee.
“I’ll use the example of when Hillary and Bernie were running against each other in the primary, there were all Bernie signs in my neighborhood,” she said. “I don’t put up a sign.”
She’s sitting in the North Shore GOP Trump campaign office in Milwaukee, a Democratic stronghold. At the campaign office, Republicans were hosting a canned food drive Salamone just donated to. They call the event “Can Kamala.”
The cans will go to a food bank where Rob Mulcahy volunteers. He’s also on the executive committee for the Republican Party in Milwaukee County. And, like the Democrats canvassing in Walworth County, he refuses to think of this blue zone as hostile.
“It is not enemy territory for me. I have lived there my entire life. I do have the courage to put yard signs up,” he said. “In the last election, I put up every Republican candidate, and I intend to do so again this year.”
Hilario Deleon — the chairman of the Republican Party of Milwaukee County — said many GOP volunteers lead with the economy when they go door knocking.
“We talk about economics, we talk about crime. We talk about actual issues that people care about,” he said. “You know, ‘Are you better off now than you were four years ago?’”
And in Milwaukee, Republicans have their own “lose by less” goal they’d like to hit.
“If we get more than 35%, even 38%, that is a win,” Deleon said. “The rest of the state will help carry us over the finish line.”
Who is winning the ground game?
The Democrats have been bragging about their rural ground game.
They send out updates with the number of offices they’ve opened, doors they’ve knocked, volunteers they’ve recruited, and say the Trump campaign has not caught up.
According to the latest campaign finance reports the parties file with the state, Wisconsin Democrats have out-raised Republicans 4-to-1 this year — nearly $20 million for the Democrats and close to $5 million for the GOP.
But Deleon said even if Democrats have more money to spend, he doesn’t agree with the Democrats that they are winning the ground game.
“The Republican Party isn’t the only group out here door knocking for President Trump. There’s tons of organizations that are coming in, third-party organizations that are coming into the state and investing millions of dollars in advertising and door knocking,” he said.
Back in Walworth County, Democrats Barb Biggler and Margie Black have just knocked on a door and met an 18-year-old.
He registered to vote at his high school, but isn’t exactly sure where or how to do it.
“There’s a lot to be said for just being kind,” Black said. “He was nervous about this whole operation and I told him I still remember the first time I voted and it was a big deal — and that was a really long time ago.”
Biggler said it’s exciting to be a part of this.
“I think that when we show up, I’d like to believe that it shows value and importance to voting,” she said. “Otherwise these strangers wouldn’t show up at your door handing you materials.”
Transcript:
ARI SHAPIRO, HOST:
In a small town less than an hour outside of Milwaukee that feels like a world away from the big city, the main street here, Walworth Street, looks like it’s been unchanged for decades. There’s a barber shop, Jack Rabbit Fizz saloon and a restaurant that advertises homemade pizza. This is a Republican stronghold, but Democrats are trying to make some inroads here.
ELLEN HOLLY: The best buttons in the world.
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #1: You have to see our good selection of buttons.
SHAPIRO: At the Walworth County Democrats office, the buttons that say childless cat lady are especially popular. But Beth Garaspadro (ph) finds a couple other pins she likes.
BETH GARASPADRO: I am getting…
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #2: (Laughter).
GARASPADRO: …No hate in my state, a I am woman, watch me vote.
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #3: Behind you, Ellen.
HOLLY: Our goal in this office is to move the needle.
SHAPIRO: Ellen Holly is the former chair of the Walworth County Dems.
HOLLY: Like, we know – well, maybe we will this year. Maybe we’ll wake up, and suddenly Walworth County will be a blue county. I’m not going to bet my child’s life on it, but…
SHAPIRO: (Laughter).
HOLLY: …We’re heading in that direction.
SHAPIRO: She’s used to being in the blue minority here. But today, she’s surrounded by volunteers who agree with her, stuffing pamphlets into plastic baggies that canvassers will take door-knocking around the neighborhood. All this week, we’re reporting from Wisconsin as part of an NPR series called We, The Voters. And here in Walworth County, you could call the Democrats’ strategy lose by less. It’s a playbook Republicans are running, too, in liberal cities. We’ll meet them in a bit. Here in Walworth County, Democrats have a specific goal.
HOLLY: Well, I think the state figured out if we can pull 42%, then the state is good.
SHAPIRO: Can you imagine, on election night, when these county results come in, cheering that you got 43 or 45%, even if that means you lost the county?
HOLLY: Oh, because everything we do here helps. So Biden won, I think, by 21,000 votes in the state around. That’s what we contributed. Now, I can’t say that it was just because of us…
SHAPIRO: Yeah.
HOLLY: …But if we did nothing…
SHAPIRO: Yeah.
HOLLY: …He would not have won.
ANTHONY CHERGOSKY: In many ways, lose by less has become the key term in this campaign.
SHAPIRO: Anthony Chergosky teaches political science at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse.
CHERGOSKY: Because Wisconsin elections are so competitive and so closely decided, the parties understand that any little gain anywhere could make the difference.
SHAPIRO: And this is true across all the swing states. So what does a strategy look like in practice? For one, door-knocking. Barb Bigler (ph) and Margie Black (ph) are Democratic Party volunteers who live in Walworth County.
(SOUNDBITE OF VEHICLE DOOR CLOSING)
SHAPIRO: They’re walking through a neighborhood where Trump signs fill the lawns. But when I ask if they think of it as enemy territory, Barb says no.
BARB BIGLER: I kind of don’t like to think about the war and the battle and that rough language. It kind of scares me. So I don’t really want to be frightened by our own country.
OK, Margie, let’s do our thing.
SHAPIRO: Many voters aren’t home.
(SOUNDBITE OF DOG BARKING)
SHAPIRO: When they do find one who’s willing to talk, they don’t go in with a hard sales pitch. Instead, they lead with, what’s important to you?
(LAUGHTER)
BIGLER: Do you have any key issues you would want us to bring forward to the candidates? They’re very interested to know what people think are some of their primary concerns, if you have a primary topic of interest.
KAYLEE: Definitely the abortion issue – I’m very for the ability to make decisions regarding that.
SHAPIRO: This voter, Kaylee (ph), declined to give her full name.
KAYLEE: Really, anything else – that’s kind of, like, over my head a little bit (laughter).
BIGLER: Well, you’re not alone in that, so please don’t feel bad.
SHAPIRO: These canvassers told us they sometimes meet quiet Harris voters, people who promise to support the Democrat but don’t want to put a sign on their lawn. And that’s the mirror image of how Denise Salamony (ph) feels. She’s a trump voter in a wealthy Democratic area on the edge of Milwaukee.
DENISE SALAMONY: Well, I’ll use the example of when Hillary and Bernie were running against each other in the primary. They were all Bernie signs in my neighborhood.
SHAPIRO: OK.
SALAMONY: Yeah.
SHAPIRO: So you must feel like…
SALAMONY: So I don’t put…
SHAPIRO: …An outsider.
SALAMONY: …I don’t put up a sign. Right. That’s why I come over here.
SHAPIRO: Here is the GOP office in a heavily Democratic part of the city, where Republicans are hosting a canned food drive and emphasizing the high price of groceries. They call the event Can Kamala. Hilario Deleon is the chairman of the Republican Party of Milwaukee County, and he goes through a bag someone just dropped off.
(SOUNDBITE OF PAPER BAG CRINKLING)
HILARIO DELEON: Let’s see, we got tuna fish, and then it looks like we have – what is this? – tomato soup or – mini ravioli.
SHAPIRO: The cans will go to a food bank where Rob Mulcahy (ph) volunteers. He’s also on the executive committee for the Republican Party in Milwaukee County. And like the Democrats canvassing in Walworth County, he refuses to think of this blue zone as hostile.
ROB MULCAHY: It is not enemy territory for me. I’ve lived here my entire life. I do have the courage to put yard signs up. In the last election, I put up every Republican candidate, and I intend to do so again this year.
SHAPIRO: How do you begin that conversation with a neighbor who you think might not be planning to vote or might be undecided?
MULCAHY: I’ve coached a lot of sports in the North Shore. So if it’s a parent whose kid I’ve coached, it’s a great icebreaker to talk about the sports. I don’t know how anybody could possibly want boys playing women’s sports. It’s just – to me, it’s a no-brainer.
SHAPIRO: He’s referring to a law Wisconsin’s Democratic governor vetoed this year that would have banned transgender high-school athletes from competing on teams that align with their gender identity. But Deleon says other GOP volunteers lead with different topics when they knock on doors.
HILARIO DELEON: We talk about economics. We talk about crime. We talk about, you know, actual issues that people care about. You know, are you better off now than you are four years ago?
SHAPIRO: And remember how the Walworth County Democrats have a goal of hitting 42% of votes for Harris in their county? Well, the Republicans have their own number here in the big city.
HILARIO DELEON: If we increase the percentage – if we get more than 35%, even 38%, that is a win ’cause the rest of the state will help carry us over the finish line.
SHAPIRO: The Democrats have been bragging about their rural ground game. They send out updates with the number of offices they’ve opened, doors they’ve knocked, volunteers they’ve recruited, and say the Trump campaign has not caught up. According to the latest campaign finance reports the parties file with the state, Wisconsin Democrats have outraised Republicans 4 to 1 this year, nearly $20 million for the Dems, close to 5 million for the GOP. When I asked Deleon about that, he said even if Democrats have more money to spend, they can’t win the argument on the issues.
HILARIO DELEON: You know, they can have all of that at the end of the day, but one thing that they can’t talk about is policies.
SHAPIRO: I am very aware that when Trump carried Wisconsin in 2016, it was with minimal infrastructure. I just want to know, if we have the Democrats saying we’re blanketing the state, and the Republicans don’t have nearly as many doors knocked and nearly…
HILARIO DELEON: That’s not true.
SHAPIRO: …As many…
HILARIO DELEON: The Republican Party isn’t the only group out here door-knocking for President Trump. There’s tons of organizations that are coming in – third-party organizations that are coming into the state and investing millions of dollars in advertising and door-knocking. So…
SHAPIRO: So you think it’s an apples-to-oranges comparison?
HILARIO DELEON: Yeah. I really do.
(SOUNDBITE OF VEHICLE PASSING)
MARGIE BLACK: I think it’s going to be this house, Barb.
SHAPIRO: Back in Walworth County, Democrats Barb Bigler and Margie Black have just knocked on a door and met an 18-year-old. He registered to vote at his high school but isn’t exactly sure where or how to do it. They talk him through how it works and then rejoin us on the sidewalk.
BLACK: There’s a lot to be said for just being kind with this young man. He was nervous…
BIGLER: Yeah.
BLACK: … About this whole…
BIGLER: Yeah.
BLACK: …Operation. And I told him, I still remember…
BIGLER: Yeah.
BLACK: The first time I voted, and it…
SHAPIRO: Yeah.
BLACK: …Was a big deal. And that was a really long time ago.
BIGLER: But he’s excited about it, and he knows it’s a big deal. And it’s exciting to be a part of that. And I think that, when we show up, I’d like to believe that it shows value and importance to voting. Otherwise, these strangers wouldn’t show up at your door handing you materials.
SHAPIRO: And then it’s back to hitting the pavement. They’re trying to knock on 34 doors before the day is over.
Tomorrow, our election reporting from Wisconsin continues with a visit to a Sikh temple where a white supremacist mass shooting took place 12 years ago. That’s in our series, We, The Voters.
(SOUNDBITE OF CLOUDKICKER’S “LET YOURSELF BE HUGE”)